评论:特朗普当选,对中国来说是件好事

星期三, 十一月 16, 2016



【本文11月14日刊登于《纽约时报》评论版,作者:李世默】

中国恐怕是遭到美国候任总统唐纳德·特朗普抨击最多的国家。在竞选总统期间,特朗普先生的“让美国重新伟大”仿佛就是击败中国的意思。

然而,中国民众支持特朗普者不在少数。习近平主席是首批向特朗普表示祝贺的世界领导人之一。在贺电中,习近平表达了对中美两大经济体进一步构建“共同利益”的希望。

北京其实很期待华盛顿改弦易辙。对于中国来说,自1971年尼克松恢复中美关系以来,奥巴马掌政的八年是两国关系最困难的时期。以希拉里·克林顿为国务卿的奥巴马政府将其制定的“重返亚洲”政策变成了遏制中国的战略,试图强化和扩大美国在亚太地区的同盟体系,增强军事存在。“重返亚太”战略的背后的经济支撑是《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》,但这份旨在孤立中国的贸易协定如今已几乎走到了穷途末路。

奥巴马掌政的八年,是中美两国关系最困难的时期

自冷战结束以来,从克林顿总统到奥巴马总统,美国一直试图按照自己的模样重塑世界——以全球化之名构筑美利坚帝国。美国设计的庞杂的联盟体系和全球机构不断膨胀,并通过它们整合统一贸易、金融和国际关系的全球标准。美国利用它的政治、经济甚至军事力量,驱使其他国家接受西式选举民主和市场资本主义。

然而中国一直拒绝屈从。虽然中国是这个全球化时代的主要受益方,中国却一直坚持以自己的一套参与全球化。在全球化的推动下,中国在一代人的时间里,从贫穷的农业经济体一跃成为工业强国。在参与全球化的同时,北京方面坚持强化其一党执政的政治体系,并对市场开放程度加以限制。

这条道路中国走得顺风顺水。中国经济规模和技术进步日新月异,以至于许多美国焦虑的精英把中国视为最具威胁的长期劲敌。

然而,正当那些美国精英们走火入魔似的在中国威胁论里越陷越深,将中国视为美国领导的自由主义秩序的头号威胁,却忽视了本国内部的政治衰败——而特朗普倒似乎明白这一点。美国精英们有种倾向,他们总试图按自己的三观去塑造世界,这导致美国当权阶层和普通百姓之间产生了冲突。美利坚帝国的构建努力牺牲了美利坚民族的利益。

在美国,全球化的受益者是财富和影响力高度集中的社会顶层,而中产阶级的境况却大告不妙,甚至每况愈下。自二战结束以来,工业制造业一直是美国中产阶级的经济基石,如今已被全球化瓦解得支离破碎。纵观其他各方面,基础设施年久失修,教育体系江河日下,社会契约陷礼崩乐坏。美国人口占世界总人口的4.5%,GDP占全球总数约20%,但军事开支竟几近全球总军费的40%。

在特朗普入主白宫之后,中美之间可能会经历一段波折,短期内可能因贸易摩擦而使得中美关系恶化。

但从长远来看,中美关系可能会变得更加健康,因为中国宁愿与一个就事论事的美国,而不是与一个时刻想着重塑世界的美国打交道。中国长于谋略,善与竞争对手打交道。中国一向反感和抵制的,是美国把自身价值观和标准体系强加于其他国家的所作所为。

特朗普承诺把就业岗位带回美国,他能做到吗?

特朗普领导的美国可能会另起炉灶,他似乎没有兴趣对其他国家指手画脚。今天的中国领导人有能力、意志坚强,而且非常务实。特朗普是个果决的商人,不是一个意识形态偏执狂。没有意识形态的束缚和包袱,即使是最强悍的对手也可以相互交易。因此,特朗普当选,世界最重要的双边关系可望书写新的一页。

奥巴马的“重返亚太”战略正在走向破产。它没有给亚太地区带来和平,甚至连美国在该地区最亲密的盟友菲律宾也已割袍断袖而去。其实,这是一个对美国而言代价不菲的世界警察项目。

中国无意与美国争夺全球主导地位。但中国顺势寻求在周边地区重获领导地位,这是再自然不过的事。中国希望获取空间来实现其发展目标。而与此同时,特朗普总统治下的美国则需要把注意力转向国内,重整河山。

放眼未来,特朗普治下的美国或许能与中国一起谱写前所未有的合作新篇章。(观察者网)

附:《纽约时报》英文版原文

Perhaps no country has taken more hits from Donald J. Trump than China. During the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump made it sound as if making America “great again” meant defeating China.

But much of the Chinese public supported him. And President Xi Jinping was among the first world leaders to congratulate him. Mr. Xi, in his message to the president-elect, expressed hopes of building on the “common interests” between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing is looking forward to change in Washington. For the Chinese, the Obama era has been the most difficult period in United States-China relations since President Richard M. Nixon renewed ties in 1971. The Obama administration, with Hillary Clinton as secretary of state, made its “pivot to Asia” about containing Beijing, aiming to strengthen and enlarge the American alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region while increasing America’s military footprint there. The pivot was backed by an economic plan, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a now-moribund trade pact created in part to isolate Beijing.

Since the end of the Cold War, from President Bill Clinton to President Obama, the United States has been trying to remake the world in its own image — building an American empire in the name of globalization. Through ever larger and more complex alliances and global institutions that the United States designed, Washington has sought the global standardization of rules in trade, finance and international relations. It has used political, economic and military might to push other countries to adopt electoral democracy and market capitalism.

China has refused to yield. While the Chinese have been great beneficiaries of this era, Beijing has engaged globalization on its own terms. China’s gains from globalization have helped turn the country from a poor agrarian economy into an industrial powerhouse within one generation. Yet Beijing has insisted on strengthening its one-party political system and opening its market only so much.

This approach is working for China. The Chinese economy continues to advance in both size and technological sophistication, so much so that China looms in the minds of many American elites as the most potent long-term threat.

But these elites fail to realize — and Mr. Trump appears to understand — that while they have been obsessed with the rise of China as a threat to the United States-led liberal order, America’s domestic political foundations have been decaying. The tendency of American elites to try to mold the world to their liking created a conflict in their own country, between Americans with power and ordinary people. The American empire was built at the expense of the American nation.

Globalization has benefited those Americans at the top with concentrated wealth and influence while the middle class has stagnated or shrunk. The country’s industrial base, the economic bedrock of the middle class in the postwar era, has been shattered. America’s infrastructure is in disrepair, its education system badly underperforming, and its social contract in shambles. It has 4.5 percent of the world’s population and about 20 percent of its gross domestic product, yet accounts for nearly 40 percent of the world’s military expenditures.

With Mr. Trump in the Oval Office, there may be some tough days ahead between China and the United States. Relations may nose-dive in the short run over trade, for example.

But in the longer term, Chinese-American relations could become healthier as the Chinese prefer a relationship with a United States that doesn’t try to remake the world. The Chinese know how to compete and can deal with competitors. What the Chinese have always resented and resisted is an America that imposes its values and standards on everybody else.

Mr. Trump’s America is likely to break from this pattern. He has shown no desire to tell other countries how to do things. China is run by competent leaders who are strong-minded and pragmatic. Mr. Trump is a resolute businessman with little ideological underpinning. Without the shackles of ideology, even the most competitive rivals can make deals. This is a new day for the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship.

The Obama pivot is failing. It was unable to produce a more peaceful Asia-Pacific region, and even America’s closest ally in the region, the Philippines, is abandoning it. It was a project in costly global policing at the expense of American national interests.

Beijing harbors no design to rival the United States for global dominance. But it is only natural that it seeks to reclaim a leading role in its Asia-Pacific neighborhood. China desires its own space to reach its development goals. At the same time, America with Mr. Trump as president needs to turn its attention to rebuilding itself.

In the long term, Mr. Trump’s America and China are more likely to work with each other than in any other period in recent memory.

_____________

请加入我们的FacebookTwitterG+,或者新浪微博获取最快资讯,我们的微信订阅号是:sgnypost